Negative Momentum Intact. Blame Europe?

While US bonds were busy holding inside a narrow sideways range through the end of last week, pressure was building in the European bond market.  When US yields merely returned to the top of their range after Thursday's econ data, EU yields were breaking their comparable highs.  Additionally, EU yields are now easily above their highs from April 25th while US yields still have above 10bps to go.

We would stop well short of making the case that US bonds are fundamentally informed by EU bond momentum in any major way.  Rather, the idea is that US bonds are more open to suggestion during the recent lull in relevant data and events.  One could certainly argue that the path of least resistance has been to follow the market with big-ticket inflation data releases (regional German inflation reports came out this morning).

The following chart has EU and US yields on separate axes, but with an equal range.  In other words, EU yields are moving more, and more directionally so far this morning.