High Stakes Week With CPI and Retail Sales on Wednesday

In 2023 and especially 2024, the first bullet point in the bond market's job description is to focus on Core CPI above all other economic reports.  In fact, it's not uncommon for a big CPI reaction to set the tone with traders largely waiting for the next CPI before making the next big move.  In February and March, negative reactions to CPI set the high end of the prevailing yield range.  That might have happened again in April if not for the additional bump from the extra strong Retail Sales data a few days later, and Powell's hawkish pivot a day later.  Even so, the April 10th CPI stands out as the biggest recent market mover, by far.  There's no reason to doubt a repeat performance is in the cards if the results come in very much outside the consensus.  Monday is quiet on the data front.  Things get progressively more serious after that with Tuesday's PPI being an opening act for Wednesday's CPI.