ADP and Treasury Refunding Announcement Do No Harm

Bonds were roughly unchanged overnight, but began to improve modestly after the ADP data.  Considering the numbers were higher than expected, that may be more of a relief bid, or even "new month" trading (8:15am is the time of the release and 8:20am is CME open that frequently sees increased volume).All that having been said, ADP is no longer big business when it comes to market movement. 

We were far more interested in the Treasury announcement, but it too has underwhelmed.  Auction sizes remained unchanged in everything 10yrs and up.  Increases were focused on the shortest end of the yield curve, which is what you'd probably want as a borrower if rates were really high but might be lower in a few years. (FRN = floating rate notes)

Treasury also announced the buyback program, or rather, announced that it would be starting the buybacks first announced back in 2023.  At $2bln per week, it's not a huge addition to the bid side of the equation.  Bonds have barely budged in response.