Time to Find Out if The Last CPI Report Was an Outlier or Warning Shot

February wasn't a fun month for rates, largely thanks to a surprise uptick in core inflation.  On that point, both CPI and PCE agreed, but many analysts pointed out the issue of seasonal distortions that occasionally affects January's price indices.  As the month's remaining data sang a somewhat softer tone, this became easier to imagine--or at least to hope for.  While the new week begins without any scheduled econ data, Tuesday brings our first real opportunity to see whether the last CPI was a seasonally distorted outlier, or a warning about unexpectedly persistent inflation.  

The stakes are high--especially with last week's jobs report having a small net impact.  Yields have arguably leveled off after rallying for more than a week.  Extreme results would allow for extreme movement (anything within 15bps, give or take), but needle-threading is always possible as well.