Some Help From Data, But Nothing Heroic

Rates are "data dependent" and the two biggest pieces of economic data are CPI and the big jobs report.  Neither are on today's calendar, but there was an anecdotal indicator for the jobs report in the form of weekly jobless claims.  This usually forgettable, but if there was one week of the month to pay attention, it would be when the report covering the 12th of the month comes out.  Why the 12th?  The survey for the big jobs report (BLS Employment Situation / nonfarm payrolls) is conducted on the week that includes the 12th.  With that in mind, the bond market did a good job of overlooking a stronger result this morning and actually took solace in S&P PMI data just over an hour later.  Despite the recovery, yields are edging back into slightly higher territory heading into the PM hours (for reasons unknown).

This weakness is occurring at unfortunate levels as some might see it as a failure to find support at the 4.32% ceiling.  It's still too soon and too close to call in the bigger picture, however.