PPI Succeeding Where CPI Failed

By: Matthew Graham

PPI (Producer Price Index) measures inflation at the wholesale level.  It is not known or respected as being a reliable or significant market mover, but sometimes it makes a dent.  Today is one of those times, likely because PPI was at least willing to offer a thought about inflation that broke from the forecast consensus in a way that yesterday's CPI did not.  Specifically, CPI's most important component (core M/M) came in at 0.3 vs a 0.3 forecast.  Contrast that to this morning's PPI that showed core M/M at 0.0 vs a 0.2 f'cast and the market feels like it has something small to trade.

Here's a "food for thought" chart on core PPI vs CPI.  It begs the question: why doesn't the market pay more attention to PPI?  It seems to have done a good job being an advance indicator at first glance.  But the clue is the 2015 time frame when PPI fell to near zero while CPI continued higher and never swooned.