Much Stronger Than Justified, But That Can Happen This Time of Year

Much Stronger Than Justified, But That Can Happen This Time of Year

On many of the recent days with a similar amount of movement in the bond market, there was a logical correlation between the underlying data/events/news and the market movement.  For instance, friendly data or friendly Fed comments pushed rates lower in a way that generally made sense.  Today is quite different.  We have an 11bp rally in 10yr yields to the lowest levels in months, and no obvious catalyst.  One could argue that bonds are simply following the medium term trend, but that's a lousy justification.  Best bet: keep the late December thesis in focus.  Specifically, we should always expect to see random volatility with bigger-than-normal movement in the 2nd half of December.  The real surprise is that we had to wait this long to see it.