Housing Sentiment Index Falls From All-Time High

By: Jann Swanson •

Fannie Mae's Home Purchase Sentiment Index (HPSI) was down slightly in August, dipping 1.5 percentage points to 85.0.  The index, based on the company's National Housing Survey (NHS) reached its all-time high in July.  Two of the six index components suffered serious reversals in their numbers compared to July while two others had less dramatic dips.  Despite the monthly decline the index is still 4.2 percentage points above where it was in August 2015.

 

 

The component reflecting net positive sentiments about whether it is a good time to sell a house dropped 5 points to 15 percent while the share of consumers who expect home prices to rise over the next year fell 6 points to 35 percent. There were smaller declines in the net of those expecting mortgage rates to decline and reporting improving household income.

 

 

 

Offsetting the negative changes were an increase in the net number of those who are not concerned about losing their job, up 4 points to 73 percent, and a 1-point increase in those who think it is a good time to buy a home. 

 "Consumers have a fairly optimistic 12-month outlook on housing at the end of the summer home-buying season, supported by increased job confidence and more favorable expectations regarding their personal financial situations compared with this time last year," said Doug Duncan, senior vice president and chief economist at Fannie Mae. "The return to a slight upward trend in the HPSI during the spring and summer is, thus far, in line with our forecast, which calls for 4 percent growth in home sales in 2016 to the best level since 2006 and continued improvement for 2017."

 

 

The HPSI is derived from responses to six questions out of approximately 100 asked of respondents to the NHS.  That survey is conducted monthly among a sample of 1,000 consumers, both homeowners and renters, and is intended to gather respondents' current views and forward-looking expectations of housing market conditions and address topics that are related to their home purchase decisions.