Mortgage Rates Modestly Lower Amid Rare 3-Day Winning Streak

Mortgage rates didn't move much today, but the movement was in a friendly direction at least.  The caveat is that this pertains to the average lender.  When a move is modest in size, that means many borrowers at many lenders won't even see a detectable difference from yesterday and some borrowers may even see slightly higher rates.

But let's not get caught up in the day to day minutia.  Instead, let's focus on the important observations and questions.  For instance, this is the first time in 2 months that we've seen 3 consecutive days and one of only 3 examples in the past 5 months. Does that mean something is changing or that the relentless surge toward 23-year highs is finally abating?

It's too soon to say, unfortunately--possibly far too soon.  The bond market is consolidating after 10yr Treasury yields hit the important 5% psychological milestone.  MBS (the mortgage-backed securities that dictate mortgage rates) almost always take day-to-day directional cues from Treasuries.  As such, mortgage rates have leveled off in similar fashion (just replace the 5 with an 8).

We won't truly be able to confirm that a corner has been turned in the big picture until we have multiple economic reports suggesting that inflation is unequivocally headed back to 2% and the broader economy is growing at a much slower pace.