Bonds Almost Hold Onto Gains Ahead of Shutdown Uncertainty

Bonds Almost Hold Onto Gains Ahead of Shutdown Uncertainty

Bonds improved moderately overnight, adding onto what was already a fairly substantial recovery yesterday.  The morning's PCE data was slightly lower than expected, but bonds didn't seem unequivocally happy about that.  There was a modest extension of the rally and then a slow give-back into the PM hours.  Trading was very flat near unchanged levels after noon ET.  Month/Quarter-end tradeflows are assumed to be underpinning some of the volatility of the past 3 days, as is the uncertainty surrounding the government shutdown.  The most direct implication for bonds is that  they must navigate the most important data week of the month without the most important data (no jobs report or JOLTS next week due to the shutdown).