The Week Ahead: Bonds Fight To Remain in Range After Jackson Hole

Friday was a volatile day for markets as investors were anxiously awaiting comments from Fed Chair Yellen that might speak to the likelihood of a Fed rate hike (or 2?) by the end of 2016.  Yellen, herself, didn't provide  much by way of concrete guidance on that topic.  While she did say that the case for a hike has strengthened in recent months, that's something that markets were already assuming based on the rebound in some of the economic data and the lack of major global financial fallout from Brexit.

Markets were spooked for a few minutes and then quickly moved back to their best levels of the week.  The trading day may have been over at that point if no other Fed speakers said anything disconcerting.  Fed Vice Chair Fischer then stepped in to clear a few things up for Yellen.  It just so happened to be fairly disconcerting.

When asked if markets should be ready for a September hike or 2 hikes this year, Fischer said that Yellen's speech was consistent with a "yes" answer to both of those questions, as long as the data confirms it.  That painted a much clearer picture for investors, who promptly sold bonds and stocks.  

The selling brought 10yr yields right to the important 1.60% ceiling, which is the highest closing level of the post-Brexit range.  From there, light "summertime Friday" trading participation paved the way for more selling--especially by algorithmic trading programs.  Notably, as soon as humans returned at 8:20am on Monday, they began bringing yields back down to the 1.60% ceiling, and it's from there that we begin the current week.

With Fischer's comment about the data needing to confirm the outlook in mind, this week will be the real opportunity for market reaction to the Fed's Jackson Hole message.  There are several top tier reports on tap, with NFP Friday, of course, being the biggest.  If the data manages to send a strong, cohesive message, it could definitely confirm the break of the ceiling that looked to be getting broken on Friday.  But if the data surprises to the downside, bonds could be back in limbo after Labor Day.