What Was That About Data Dependence?

Yesterday's closing headline and most condensed recap of Powell's press conference was simply: "data dependence continues."  Indeed it does!  This morning's economic data came out resoundingly stronger with all four reports beating forecasts--rather significantly in at least 2 cases.  A slightly dovish read on the European Central Bank announcement helped bonds hold their ground with minimal losses earlier in the morning, but after Lagarde's press conference ended, the selling snowball is rolling.

We also discussed the fact that the frontier for the rate hike outlook is far into the future these days.  The market doesn't expect much more upward pressure in terms of Fed rate hikes in the coming months.  Instead, the adjustments to the outlook have been taking place in the form of lower expectations for rate cuts in 2024.  Yesterday's press conference helped restore some of that rate cut expectation with the March Fed meeting showing rates a quarter point lower than the level created by yesterday's hike.  Now this morning, the econ data has fully reversed that expectation.