Slightly Weaker Momentum, But No Change in The Bigger Picture
Slightly Weaker Momentum, But No Change in The Bigger Picture
Today's most notable market movement surrounded European PMI data overnight. Weaker PMIs prompted a swift rally in EU bonds and pulled Treasuries along for the ride. Treasuries then spent the rest of the day pushing back in the other direction. There were no compelling individual motivations for the weakness, but those grasping at straws might mention things like the Treasury auction cycle and the random volatility to which summertime Mondays and Fridays are prone. Ultimately, the sell-off made for only a modest widening of the pre-Fed range with 10yr yield intraday highs less than 1bp higher than last Thursday.
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- S&P Manufacturing PMI
- 49.0 vs 46.2 f'cast, 46.3 prev
- S&P Services PMI
- 52.4 vs 54.0 f'cast, 54.4 prev
- S&P Manufacturing PMI
10yr down 1.8bps at 3.819, giving up some overnight gains. MBS just a hair worse than unchanged, but also illiquid
Weakest levels of the day. 10s up 2bps at 3.857 and MBS down about an eighth.
Mostly sideways in the PM hours. 10yr up 2bps at 3.857. MBS down 2 ticks (.06).
microscopic technical breakout from PM range. MBS down 6 ticks (.19) and 10yr up 3.2bps at 3.869.