Pre-Powell Baseline Remains Intact as New Week Begins

Early last week, we shifted away from waiting on additional rally momentum from the previous week's rally and into a holding pattern ahead of this week's Fed meeting.  At the time, the Fed meeting was over a week away, but bonds have managed to maintain the holding pattern faithfully.  The same range continues to be the baseline heading into Wednesday's Fed events where Chair Powell's press conference will be the more important potential market mover (the market already fully expects the rate hike that will be announced 30 minutes prior).

The in-range performance came courtesy of an overnight session that began in weaker territory in Asia, but turned positive in Europe after downbeat PMI data.  The PMIs helped both stocks and bonds due to implications for friendlier central bank policy. The gains weren't extreme and early domestic trading is pushing back in the other direction after US PMI came in stronger.