Data Free Friday Leaves Focus on Fed

It's a summertime Friday in the bond market, so anything can happen.  Bonds could undertake a huge rally or sell-off without any clear connection to anything in the news or calendar.  That said, these are just the sorts of eventualities that we're less surprised to see on a data-free summertime Friday.  We don't go into the day with an elevated expectation for one outcome or another.  More importantly, any outcome would be hard-pressed to change the broader narrative which is that of a generally range-bound bond market that seeks clarity from Fed Chair Powell in next week's post-rate-hike press conference.

Meanwhile, back on the topic of data-free summertime Fridays, bonds are off to a slightly stronger start with the characteristically overdone movement at the 8:20am CME open (often the morning's main source of movement/volatility when participation is light and data is absent).