Fed Day, What To Expect

Today's Fed events are both straightforward, mostly predictable, and potentially highly consequential.  The Fed's line of thinking will likely prove to be straightforward: inflation remains too high despite showing signs of improvement. More hikes will likely be needed, but today's can be "skipped" in order to better assess the potential shift in price pressures and the impact of regional bank tightening.  In terms of predictability, there is effectively no chance of a hike today.  The highly consequential info includes the dot plot and Powell's press conference at 2pm and 2:30pm respectively.

The dots will do more than anything to let the market know how the Fed feels about the odds of additional rate hikes in 2023 (or the absence of rate cuts).  As of yesterday, the market finally believes the Fed's previous dot plot which called for no rate CUTS this year.