The Day Ahead: Markets Want to Hear it From Yellen

Picture it:  a smoky lounge, the vaguely distinctive clinking of ice cubes in cocktail glasses, a mellow jazz band, and a tantalizing performance of "Do Nothing Till You Hear From Me."

In this particular metaphor, we're not graced with the dulcet tones of Ella Fitzgerald.  Rather, it's Janet Yellen (don't worry, she's more charismatic as a lounge singer).  If Yellen's uninhibited subconscious could sing, the lyrics would be strikingly similar in parts.  Let's take the first few bars with my translations added in parenthetically:

Someone  told someone and someone told you
(Dudley, Lockhart said hawkish stuff and then TV stations and newswires told you about it.)

But they wouldn't hurt you, not much
(Don't worry too much about what those dudes are saying)

Since every one spreads the story With his own little personal touch
(That's like, they're opinion, man.  They knew yesterday's minutes would help rates move lower and we here at the Fed do not want markets to move at all, so they figured they'd offset some of that expected movement)

Do nothin' till you hear from me. 
(I will tell you what's up at Jackson Hole next week so you can enjoy the last week of summer with some sense of certainty regarding upcoming monetary policy decisions.  My little gift to you.)

Whether Yellen actually feels this way is irrelevant.  This is the song that markets are hearing in their heads, and it shows in the persistently narrow, consolidative patterns in yields.  The consolidation is clearly converging on Yellen's big night.  If there's a grand piano on stage before her speech, don't be surprised to see her sitting on it in a sequined gown shortly thereafter, reminding you that she's the boss.

As an aside, and because I always hate it when people share important thoughts in the form of vague metaphor without sufficient explanation, here's the simple version of all of the above:

Fed's Dudley and Lockhart were out yesterday saying rates should go higher.  Then the Fed Minutes came out and said rates should go lower.  Next week's Jackson Hole symposium gives Yellen an opportunity to speak candidly on the Fed rate hike outlook, and this is the best place to get a sense of what's coming down the pike for the next few Fed meetings.

As for data today, it's already out, and it didn't move markets.  But Dudley is speaking again at 10am.  Let's see if he says anything different today.