Data and Bank Drama Can't Break Range; Inflation "Predictions"

The market is definitely in an on-again, off-again romance with bank drama.  Today was already shaping up to be an "on-again" day before the open as Pac West's stock slid in pre-market trading.  Jamie Dimon is also on record saying commercial real estate could cause a few more banks to fold.  Markets aren't too surprised by the risk of a few more bank failures, but it helps drive a bit of bond buying.  AM econ data helped further that agenda with inflation cooling and jobless claims hitting the highest levels since late 2021.  Despite those tailwinds, 10yr yields are already shying away from a range breakout.

In other news, we're getting some questions this morning about the prospect of lower inflation numbers when July's CPI comes out.  It's safe to say that's old news and has been priced into current rate levels since August 2022.  The prospect of lower annual inflation in the July data is not a prediction.  It is a certainty due to 'base effects.'