"As-Expected" CPI Good Enough For Modest Gains But Not a Range-Breaker
By:
Matthew Graham
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The long awaited CPI data is out and the results could scarcely be less eventful. Core monthly inflation (the most important number for markets today) was right in line with forecasts. Bonds rallied moderately on the news. Perhaps that's a "relief bid?" Digging a bit deeper, the core CPI number that excludes shelter (something Powell specifically mentioned last week) was 0.266 versus 0.294 last time. Excluding rent and owners equivalent rent, today's report was 0.113 versus 0.404 last month--a meaningful decline to be sure.
No objections to the rally here, but it doesn't do anything to inform the ongoing sideways range.