In The Center of The Range, Waiting on Supply and Data
The bond market isn't trying on any new hats recently. Yields have been mostly deadlocked between 3.4 and 3.6%.
Econ data has been mixed. Bank drama has been ebbing and flowing. The uncertainty of the present situation is logical and perhaps a bit frustrating. Shouldn't higher rates and time have taken a toll on consumer demand and prices by now? Yes, but that toll is relative and it takes time to assess. This week's CPI data offers one of the most definitive ways to assess progress on inflation or lack thereof. Between now and then, bonds are off to a slightly weaker start this week as supply stacks up.
What does "supply" mean in this context? We already know about the Treasury auction cycle. That can add general pressure, but usually doesn't create the type of selling seen so far this morning. For that, we turn to the here's the primer.