Challenging The Range Ceiling Yet Again

The bond market is nothing if not willing to react to economic data these days.  After all, that data will add up to a very big revelation regarding the inflation and the economy.  That revelation will, in turn, determine whether 10yr yields trade below 3% or over 4% in the coming months.  While there wasn't anything worth fretting over on the US calendar, UK inflation surged in March according to a CPI release overnight.  EU and US bond yields spiked in sympathy, thus setting US 10s up to challenge the ceiling of the current range.

But what is that ceiling exactly?  We've referred to it as 3.60 in passing, but also as 3.62 on our list of "key levels" on MBS Live.  One could even make a case for the recent outright intraday highs just over 3.64.  Ultimately, it doesn't much matter.  The more time one spends obsessing over technical levels, the more the realization sets in that they are imperfect lines in the sand and may only be generally close to the various bounces and breakouts that matter.