Finally Finding Some Support From The Range?

In a week without an obvious focus or flashpoint for the bond market, it wouldn't be too surprising to see traders fall back on a range-trading strategy as they wait for more decisive motivations.  Last week's weakness reinforced a weekly floor of 3.40% (or 3.25% in daily terms) and created some short-term momentum toward weaker levels.  From a strict range-trading perspective, 3.60% has been the foil for 3.40%, and that's exactly where we're seeing support enter the picture.  As always, keep in mind that support doesn't make promises about remaining supportive.  It simply reiterates that a breakout would be important.

If bonds were a bit carried away in early April, it would be due to the combination of banking drama and several weak economic reports that came out before the April 7th jobs report.  Things began to change quickly after the jobs report and the reversal accelerated due to bank earnings and a favorable interpretation of last week's Retail Sales data.  The extra "oomph" behind the reversal comes courtesy of a rapid repricing of Fed rate hike expectations.  Traders now see the smallest chance of rate cuts by the end of 2023 in more than a month.