New Week, Same Weakness

If you had to reduce the past few weeks of bond market movement to the most basic of explanations, you might say that the jobs report on April 7th led to a reversal of positive momentum and that a steady selling trend has been in place ever since.  Of course we can add some additional detail by considering the impact of other events and economic data since then, but either way, those events still support a conclusion that isn't as bond-friendly as the data seen on the first few days of the month.

Specifically, a month-over-month core CPI reading of 0.4% is still fairly high and it fails to break new ground in suggesting a return to a 2.0% inflation target.  Core Retail Sales numbers failed to show a dent in consumer spending from the recent banking drama.  And then there are bank earnings themselves.  Granted, only about a quarter of the quarter would have been affected by bank panic, but that still would have been noticeable in earnings if it caused major issues.

All that to say that the bond market has pivoted fairly quickly from expecting no further Fed rate hikes to almost 100% chance of a 25bp hike at the upcoming meeting.  In terms of the long end of the curve, 10yr yields are orbiting 3.50% with modal highs/lows suggesting the same old range between roughly 3.4 and 3.6.  

Today's data is limited with only NY Fed Manufacturing and Builder Confidence.  Neither will be of any help to bonds as both came out stronger than expected.  Expectations aside, both reports show resilience after bouncing in late 2022.