Does E-Commerce Surge Help Explain Friday's Sell-Off?

The day began with a puzzler: bonds sold off abruptly in response to economic data that would normally cause bonds to rally.  With that, the game was afoot.  Market analysts began guessing at reasons and looking under rocks that are seldom disturbed.  The first such rock was the "core" retail sales number which came in right on target.  But the even more obscure rock of "non-store sales" provided an even clearer notion of a consumer who wasn't too scared by the banking drama in March.  Either way, the market interpreted the data as nowhere near weak enough to force the issue of a Fed pivot.

Econ Data / Events
    • Retail Sales
      • -1.0 vs -0.4 f'cast, -0.2 prev
    • Retail Sales ex Autos/Gas/Building/Food
      • -0.3 vs -0.3 f'cast, +0.5 prev
    • Import Prices 
      • -0.6 vs -0.1 f'cast, -0.2 prev
    • Industrial Production
      • 0.4 vs 0.2 f'cast, 0.2 prev
    • Consumer Sentiment
      • 63.5 vs 62.0 f'cast 62.0 prev
    • 1yr inflation expectations
      • 4.6 vs 3.6 prev
    • 5yr inflation expectations
      • 2.9 vs 2.9 prev
Market Movement Recap
09:08 AM

Bonds paradoxically weaker after Retail Sales data.  10yr up 5.6 bps at 3.505.  MBS down nearly 3/8ths of a point.

12:33 PM

Fairly flat since the initial sell-off.  Treasuries drifting a bit weaker than MBS.  10yr up 7.5bps at 3.524.  MBS down almost 3/8ths. 

02:55 PM

No major changes from the last update.  Everything happened in the first hour of the day.  Flat since then.