Unofficially Still Waiting For The Week to Begin

Bonds took today to get caught up after an unconventional holiday weekend (a short half day on Friday and a full trading day in the US today despite Europe being closed). MBS underperformed and Treasuries weakened modestly as of the 3pm CME close.  Even with today's full session, volumes were still well under 50% of the norm.  That doesn't mean we should dismiss the modest weakness as irrelevant, but we'll defer to tomorrow for a more accurate pre-CPI starting point and then to CPI day itself (Wednesday) as the most probably source of inspiration this week, for better or worse.

Econ Data / Events
    • Wholesale Inventories
      • 0.1 vs 0.2 f'cast, 0.2 prev
Market Movement Recap
09:01 AM

Initially stronger in the overnight session, but losing some ground in the first hour.  10yr down 3.2bps on the day at 3.381.  MBS down an eighth of a point.

10:00 AM

Modest additional weakness after 9:30am NYSE open.  10yr up almost 1bp at 3.42.  MBS briefly down a quarter point, but now only 6 ticks (.19). 

12:49 PM

Recovering a bit from the weakest levels.  MBS now down only 3 ticks (.09) and 10yr yields very close to unchanged at 3.413.

03:28 PM

Sideways at modestly weaker levels for the past several hours.  MBS down 5 ticks (.16) and 10yr yields still near unchanged on the day.