Lowest Job Openings Since May 2021 Helping Bonds

Bonds began the day in weaker territory as they followed European yields higher overnight.  But the domestic session is looking up thanks to JOLTS data (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey).  Job openings fell to 9.931m, which is the lowest since May of 2021 and the latest sign that the labor market could finally show signs of softening.

The following chart shows the decline in JOLTS against the backdrop of the unemployment rate (U/E).  In this case U/E has been inverted in order to show the correlation with JOLTS (so think if it as an "employment rate?"). 

It was only 2 reports ago that JOLTS looked like it was surging back up.  That surge hit the same week that Nonfarm Payrolls crested 500k, building the perception of uncanny resilience in the jobs market.  Last month's downtick was a step in the right direction.  Today's bigger drop confirms the shift and makes the past year look much more like a "top."