MBS RECAP: Bond Buying Switch Flipped After Early Weakness

By: Matthew Graham

Any time we watch a sideways range rates with fairly clear technical boundaries, it's only natural to hope that the upper boundary will hold up in the face of weakness.  It's also logical to get a little anxious when rates quickly approach those boundaries in concert with other markets (like European bonds and stocks).  

This was the case earlier this morning as 10yr yields and mortgage rates hit the highest levels since late June.  The underlying motivation for the weakness was the question and answer session with ECB President Draghi.  Rather than one surprising headline, it was a package deal that began as early as 7:45am with the official announcement that the ECB was not cutting rates or expanding stimulus efforts.  Bonds endured volatility, more than anything, in the wake of that news, but only rose another few bps before buyers perked up.

And THAT'S what we were hoping/waiting for: buyers to step in and say "this is enough weakness that buying bonds makes sense again."  This isn't necessarily as awesome as it sounds though.  Reason being: we don't know if buyers stepped in because they want to own bonds ahead of an expected rally or if they simply saw attractive levels at which to cover short positions before taking off for an unofficial 3-day weekend (no data on tap for tomorrow and a big, uncertain week ahead).  


MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
MBS
FNMA 3.0
103-18 : +0-00
Treasuries
10 YR
1.5560 : -0.0240
Pricing as of 7/21/16 5:51PMEST

Today's Reprice Alerts and Updates
A recap of Alerts and Updates provided to MBS Live subscribers.
11:44AM  :  Bonds Reject Upper Range Boundary; Back to 'Unchanged'
9:25AM  :  ALERT ISSUED: Bonds on The Ropes as ECB Soothes

MBS Live Chat Highlights
A recap of featured comments from the Live Discussion on the MBS Live Dashboard.
Sung Kim  :  "there are plenty of others, it's just a matter of what rate your clients expect"
Michael Flanagan  :  "Connective"
Jon Bodan  :  "US Bank, Parkside off the top of my head"
Travis Waters  :  "who can do jumbo at 90% LTV?"