MBS Day Ahead: Perfectly Flat Bonds Ready To Head Either Way After Data

Granted, economic data in the US is far from the only game in town at the moment.  In fact, it's probably one of the least important games there is, when it comes to determining the long-term fate of rates.  But it is one of the only games in town this morning.

Retail Sales has always been a potential market mover, and the forecast of +0.1 leaves the door open for a bigger perceived reaction (because it's so close to negative territory that any big beat or miss "looks" bigger than it actually is).  CPI is important once again (it spent quite a few years in a hole), as some inflation metrics (like yesterday's PPI) show signs of life. 

CPI is also important because of the general renewed focus on inflation that's followed logically from the oil price crash.  The thinking is that oil prices helped all prices find bottom in terms of trajectory, and now we're just waiting for signs that they'll head higher.  I don't particularly care for that thinking, but it's out there, nonetheless.  As such, any signs of that initial pop in inflation (the one we're not likely to get) may be met with a more serious trading response.