New Week Off to Weak Start

Bonds don't have too much so stress about this week in terms of calendar events.  The notable exception is Fed Chair Powell's Jackson Hole speech on Friday.  With recent Fed comments unified on goals but diverse in the minute details of the approach, market participants will be very receptive to Powell offering any clarity on those details (even if such an offer is by no means guaranteed).  The same morning, we'll also get July's PCE inflation data, which is arguably a report to stress about, but the market has been much more interested in trading CPI vs PCE despite the Fed's stated preference for the latter.

In the meantime, bonds are bracing for challenges involved in underwriting this week's Treasury supply as traders continue refining big-picture inflation expectations to account for last week's European surprises.  What had been a consolidation pattern in bonds is now a simply uptrend.  Momentum remains oversold and we're still waiting on the kind of reversal cue seen in mid June.