Home Price Gains Ease but Expected to Finish Year in Double Digits

The pace of home price increases slowed slightly from April to May, but the change in each of the three S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller indices and the Federal Housing Finance Agency’s (FHFA’s) House Price Index was less than 1 percentage point.

Case-Shiller’s National Home Price Index which covers all nine census divisions was up 19.7 percent compared to May 2021. Its 0.9-point deceleration from the annual rate in April was the largest for any of the indices. The 10-City Composite grew 19.0 percent on an annual basis compared to 19.6 percent in April, and the 20-City Composite slowed to 20.5 percent from 21.2 percent the month before.

Tampa, Miami, and Dallas reported the highest year-over-year gains among the 20 cities in May. Tampa led the way for the third consecutive month with a 36.1 percent year-over-year price increase. Miami was second with a 34.0 percent gain, followed by Dallas at 30.8 percent. Four of the 20 cities tracked reported higher price increases in the year ending May 2022 versus the year ending April 2022.

On a monthly basis the National Index was up 1.5 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis and 1.0 percent unadjusted. The seasonally adjusted 10-City and 20-City Composites posted increases of 1.4 percent and 1.5 percent, and both were 1.3 percent higher before adjustment. All 20 cities reported increases before and after seasonal adjustments.

CoreLogic Deputy Chief Economist Selma Hepp said that, while higher mortgage rates and growing recession concerns dampened homebuyer demand in June, it remains robust in parts of the country. She expects price growth to slow but said it is likely to remain in double digits through the remainder of this year.”  

Craig J. Lazzara, Managing Director at S&P DJI said, “The market’s strength continues to be broadly based, as all 20 cities recorded double-digit price increases for the 12 months ended in May. May’s gains ranked in the top quintile of historical experience for 19 cities, and in the top decile for 17 of them. However, at the city level we also see evidence of deceleration. Price gains for May exceeded those for April in only four cities. As recently as February of this year, all 20 cities were accelerating.

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Indices are constructed to accurately track the price of typical single-family home pairs for thousands of individual houses from the available universe of arms-length sales data. The National U.S. Home Price Index tracks the value of single-family housing within the United States. The indices have a base value of 100 in January 2000. The May reading for the National Index was 305.98. The 10-City Composite was at 328.92 and the 20-City Composite reading was 317.30.

FHFA said its index tracking home prices for purchases financed by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac rose 1.4 percent from April to May and were 18.3 percent higher than a year earlier. The annual increase in April was 18.9. The previously reported 1.6 percent price change for April 2022 was revised downward to 1.5 percent.

“House prices continued to rise in May, but at a slower pace” said Will Doerner, Ph.D., Supervisory Economist in FHFA’s Division of Research and Statistics. “Since peaking in February, price appreciation has moderated slightly. Price growth continues to remain above historical levels, supported by the low inventory of properties for sale.”

Prices continued to increase in all nine census divisions on both a monthly and annual basis. April to May gains ranged from 0.2 percent in the Pacific division to 2.0 percent in New England. The 12-month changes were lowest in the Middle Atlantic at 13.9 percent and highest, at 23.8 percent, in the South Atlantic.