MBS RECAP: Best Kind of Day for Bonds: Steady and Much Stronger

By: Matthew Graham
  • Brexit fallout continues.  That's really all we got
  • Fortunately, that's a huge positive for bond markets
  • 10yr yields dropped more than 10bps
  • Fannie 3.0s rose more the 3/8ths of a point
  • Stocks got killed

In terms of the ratio of market movement to the "new" news causing it, today is probably one of the least eventful days in history.  Everything important happened on Friday (Brexit) and today is merely a reverberation of that thunder.  

Now, that's not to say that market participants aren't weighing some extremely heavy long-term eventualities.  Indeed, they're probably doing more of that right now than at most any other time in the past few years.  The point is that we don't have any new info, and nothing new has happened.

In the current case, that's good because it leaves the doors of speculation wide open to some pretty severe outcomes over time.  These, of course, include the dissolution of the European Union among other things.  Keep in mind, we're talking about a long

Keep in mind, we're talking about a long time frame and some very big unknowns, but the fact is that Brexit has opened the door for these possibilities to be more seriously considered.  One way investors are accounting for that long term risk is to buy a LOT of long-term debt.  Case in point: 30yr bonds crushed the rest of the yield curve today, dropping 14bps versus only a 4bp drop in 2yr yields.

MBS continue struggling to keep pace with the drop in 10yr yields, but incentive is low when rates are well into 3-year lows.  Also, no lender wants to be caught holding the proverbial bag in case rates happen to bounce--even if only for a few weeks.  As such, mortgage rates have only trickled lower from Friday.  We can expect them to close the gap the longer the broader rate market holds these newly rediscovered levels.


MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
MBS
FNMA 3.0
103-22 : +0-13
Treasuries
10 YR
1.4390 : -0.1400
Pricing as of 6/27/16 4:52PMEST

Today's Reprice Alerts and Updates
A recap of Alerts and Updates provided to MBS Live subscribers.
10:58AM  :  Brexit Day 2: Holding--Maybe Improving Upon The Gains

MBS Live Chat Highlights
A recap of featured comments from the Live Discussion on the MBS Live Dashboard.
Brent Borcherding  :  "No, Insanity is when we go into the 2s."
Tom Duff  :  "insanity"
Brent Borcherding  :  "Was just confirming for all. Agreed."
Matthew Graham  :  "wouldn't be surprised to see rate table lenders at 3.25% no points"
Scott Valins  :  "I have it paying around 102 at several banks"
Matthew Graham  :  "It was doable on Friday for some."
Matthew Graham  :  "yep, that's doable today for sure."
Brent Borcherding  :  "No points?"
Scott Valins  :  "3.375"
Daniel A. Kramer  :  "brokers, what rate would you quote today on a 30 yr fixed, 200k loan, 50% LTV, 765 fico, NJ, primary home?"