MBS Day Ahead: Time To Play Brexit Results Game

• 2 more Brexit polls out overnight.  Both leaning toward "remain"
• "Remain" = terrible for bond markets
• More polls and possibly even some early results will trickle in throughout the day
• There is also the potential hedge fund impact

In case it's not clear (and as much as we may like to be dismissive about it), Brexit is a big deal.  Even if it hadn't been a big deal before, it became a big deal the moment the Fed said it was delaying a rate hike because of it.  The Brexit could have been anything at that point--something as trivial as vote among Fed members on the caterer for lunch at the next meeting--and we would still be obsessing over it.

As it happens, Brexit isn't nearly so trivial, even if it's not necessarily the end of the world.  The closer we come to a final verdict on the event itself, the bigger the potential market reactions.   To repeat something I said yesterday, the only reason we haven't seen a bigger reaction so far is that the polls have been so close.  Some have made the point that British odds-makers show a clear lead among the "remain" camp, but others have pointed out that's only due to bigger dollar bets supporting "remain" (with a higher number of bettors choosing "leave"). 

The most recent polls always carry the most weight when it comes to trying to get the scoop on a final result.  As such, it's no surprise to see overnight trading play out like this in the presence of 2 more polls that favor "remain":

The other thing to keep in mind is that hedge funds and other big, tactical players in financial markets are doing everything they can do in order to get a bead on the voting results.  Some media outlets have suggested hedge funds have commissioned their own polls and research for this purpose as there is no official exit polling allowed on the Brexit vote.  If big money starts to think it knows the results, that's something that would show up in the market, even without a new poll or new piece of news to point to.  In other words, markets could begin responding to Brexit results before Brexit results exist.