Fed Finally Sticks to Script. Bonds Like It

Fed days have seen a series of increasingly hawkish adjustments since last September.  This one is stands out as the first since then where the Fed has bowled right down the middle.  Powell only helped the cause during the press conference.  without another hawkish adjustment or warning from Powell in the press conference. The biggest turning point followed Powell's assertion that 75bp hikes are off the table, but MBS took initial solace in the Fed's note regarding eventually relaxing balance sheet normalization caps.

Econ Data / Events

  • Fed MBS Buying 10am, 11:30am, 1pm

  • ADP Employment 247k vs 395k f'cast, 479k prev

  • ISM Services 57.1 vs 58.5 f'cast 58.3 prev
    Prices at record high, employment fell

Market Movement Recap
08:38 AM

Bonds closed in Tokyo again due to holiday, opened weaker in Europe, then rallied back into positive territory before moving back to unchanged levels currently.  MBS are currently showing a quarter point lower, but bid/ask spread is about a quarter of a point, so it's just as fair to say 'unchanged.'

09:47 AM

Weaker after 9am with 10s now up 2bps, trading near 3.0% and MBS down roughly a quarter point, but still suffering from illiquidity.

11:28 AM

Decent bounce back toward the center of today's trading range.  10s closer to unchanged at 2.985 and MBS down only 2 ticks (.06).

02:14 PM

Some 2-way volatility after Fed, but generally slightly stronger so far--especially for MBS, which are now up an eighth of a point on the day. 10s are just slightly below 'unchanged' at 2.975.  Waiting on Powell.

03:50 PM

Strong gains mostly intact now with the big mover being the rejection of 75bp hike discussion by Powell, among other balanced/dovish comments.