Flat Day For MBS as Markets Wait For More Activity

With most of Europe out of the office, volume got off to a super slow start in the overnight session.  Trading picked up at the domestic open, but not enough to claim anything other than a subdued level of activity.  Amid this low-volume backdrop, MBS managed to hold fairly flat throughout the session while Treasury yields moved up to another multi-year high.  Even after today, the event calendar doesn't have any big ticket items as far as the bond market is concerned.  All we can do is continue to play defense as we wait for a technically significant shift in momentum.  

Econ Data / Events

  • Fed MBS Buying 10am, 11:30am, 1pm

  • NAHB Builder Confidence 77 vs 77 f'cast, 79 Prev

Market Movement Recap
08:59 AM

Initially weaker overnight, now back to unchanged levels as domestic traders bought at the 8:20am CME open.  10yr yield down half a bp at 2.822 and 4.0 UMBS up 2 ticks (0.06) at 100-02 (100.06).

11:17 AM

Treasuries reversed course around 9:30am (NYSE open) and have been drifting up into weaker territory since then.  MBS have been resilient and are still 1 tick (0.03) stronger on the day.

02:04 PM

Treasuries at weakest levels with 10yr up 4bps at 2.866.  MBS unchanged on the day, down roughly 3 ticks (0.09) from the highs.  Trading has been in "drift" mode (not distinct market movers) over the past few hours.

04:32 PM

Coasting out with MBS in the same range as a majority of the trading day (depending on the coupon).  Liquidity is causing some distortion.  4.0 coupons are a hair better than unchanged and 10yr yields are up just under 2bps at 2.843.