MBS RECAP: Fed Admits Reality; Bonds Rally

By: Matthew Graham
  • The Fed confirmed they would have a close eye on next NFP
  • rate hike outlook was downgraded, as was growth
  • They're concerned about confirmation of labor market deceleration, Brexit, etc.
  • They did nothing to attempt to sound like they were interested in hiking
  • Bonds moved back in line with yesterday's best levels

It was a foregone conclusion that the Fed wouldn't hike in June--at least if you asked anyone in the past few weeks.  But there was still a risk that the Fed would say something silly to lay out some contingencies for a July rate hike. They did nothing of the sort and bond markets like that very much.

The announcement itself was benign on the topic of impending rate hikes, and the rest of today's Fed communications only helped fuel broader concerns about global growth and potential shocks from things like Brexit.  Specifically, Fed forecasts showed an even lower and slower path of interest rate expectations in the future.

Fed Chair Yellen's press conference was also rate-friendly inasmuch as it confirmed all of the logical assumptions about how the Fed's thinking might be evolving based on recent events.  She went so far as to say that the "new normal" for the neutral/natural Fed Funds Rate was near zero.

To reduce several hours of carefully worded esoterica to a few nuggets, the Fed is now potentially concerned about the most recent jobs report and they want to see the next one before deciding on a rate hike. They also need to see what happens with the U.K.'s vote to leave the EU. Even then, they think that the "new normal" for rates could be lower than they thought. No one is too surprised about that, and bond markets improved accordingly.


MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
MBS
FNMA 3.0
103-04 : +0-06
Treasuries
10 YR
1.5750 : -0.0360
Pricing as of 6/15/16 4:51PMEST

Today's Reprice Alerts and Updates
A recap of Alerts and Updates provided to MBS Live subscribers.
3:18PM  :  Yellen Dovish; Bonds Look a Bit Tired of Rallying, But Still Green
2:05PM  :  First Move After Fed is Positive
10:22AM  :  Bonds Shun Stocks, Follow Europe Back to Better Levels

MBS Live Chat Highlights
A recap of featured comments from the Live Discussion on the MBS Live Dashboard.
Matthew Graham  :  "man... we got the green giddiness in here right now"
Jeff Anderson  :  "60% of the time I can do that all the time?"
Matt Hodges  :  "no, overlays"
Timothy Baron  :  "all the time."
Hugh W. Page  :  "maybe"
Jason Anker  :  "yes"
Tony Garcia  :  "Can anyone do the following?"
Frank Hanna  :  "MG, how did you prepare that annotated statement so quickly? youre incredible, and this sight is the greatest"
Sung Kim  :  "pretty sure the doves ate the hawks today"
Andy Pada, Jr.  :  "may be one of the more dovish statements I've seen"
Christopher Stevens  :  "not hawkish at all that's got doves flying all over"
Sung Kim  :  "will see you soon 1.55"
Frank Hanna  :  "not as hawkish as I expected"
Sung Kim  :  "that last one should have pulled us to 1.55"
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS- FED SAYS EXPECTS INFLATION TO REMAIN LOW IN NEAR TERM BUT SHOULD RISE AS EFFECTS OF PRIOR OIL PRICE DECLINES DISSIPATE; MARKET-BASED MEASURES OF INFLATION COMPENSATION HAVE DECLINED"
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS - FED SAYS STRONGER HOUSEHOLD SPENDING, IMPROVED HOUSING SECTOR AND LOWER DRAG FROM EXPORTS STILL SUPPORT 'MODERATE' ECONOMIC EXPANSION"
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS- FED SAYS CONTINUING TO MONITOR GLOBAL FINANCIAL AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS BUT MAKES NO MENTION OF BREXIT OR OTHER SPECIFIC RISKS"
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS- FED SAYS IMPROVEMENT IN LABOR MARKET SLOWED SINCE APRIL MEETING DESPITE PICKUP IN ECONOMIC ACTIVITY BUT EXPECTS REBOUND"
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS - FED CUTS GROWTH OUTLOOK FOR 2016 AND 2017, SEES ECONOMY GROWING AT 2 PCT, NO LONGER ABOVE LONG-TERM TREND"
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS- FED SEES SLOWER PATH OF FUTURE RATE HIKES AT ROUGHLY THREE PER YEAR STARTING IN 2017, CUTS ESTIMATED LONG-RUN FEDERAL FUNDS RATE TO 3 PCT FROM 3.3 PCT IN MARCH FORECAST"
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS - FED LEAVES TARGET INTEREST RATE UNCHANGED AT 0.25-0.50 PCT, STILL SEES TWO RATE HIKES IN 2016"