Bond Market Betrayal as Mortgage Rates Hit Another Long Term High

By the end of last week, the bond market was sending hopeful signs about the recent rate spike potentially leveling off.  It had done the same thing on the previous Friday only to give way to highest rates in 3 years as the week progressed.  Sadly, the most recent Friday offered a similar betrayal.

In other words, the bond market was merely regrouping for another jump toward even weaker levels (bond market weakness = higher rates, all other things being equal).  Today's move was especially sharp because it combined general weakness from the AM hours with a bad reaction to a specific event in the afternoon hours.

The event in question was a speech (and subsequent comments) from Fed Chair Powell.  Rather than do anything at all to push back against last week's Fed-driven rate spike, Powell forcefully doubled down on the Fed's urgent need to shift Fed policy to an even less rate-friendly stance.

Mortgage lenders were already roughly an eighth of a point higher in terms of 30yr fixed rates this morning.  After Powell, rates nearly doubled that move (i.e. some lenders are a quarter of a point higher in rate versus Friday's latest levels).  That makes today one of only 5 days with this big of a spike in more than a decade.

Lender rate offerings are widely stratified and many are still getting caught up with the market volatility, but it's safe to say the average lender is now over 4.5%, and much closer to 4.625% for top tier conventional 30yr fixed scenarios.