Massive Reversal After Russia/Ukraine Headlines

Quite the round trip today as bond yields hit the weakest levels in more than 2 years only to reverse course late in the day to fully erase an entire week's worth of weakness--at least for Treasuries.  The reversal was driven by headlines regarding a potentially imminent Russian invasion of Ukraine.  10yr Treasury yields fell more than 10bps and MBS rallied more than half a point in response.

Econ Data / Events

  • Fed MBS Buying 10am, 11:30am, 1pm

  • Consumer Sentiment ......61.7 vs 67.5
    1yr inflation change ......  0.1
    5yr inflation change  ...... 0.0

Market Movement Recap
09:12 AM

Slightly stronger overnight with most of the gains arriving at the start of the European session.  10yr yield down 4bps to 2.003%.  3.0 UMBS up 10 ticks (.31) to 100-11 (100.34).  

02:25 PM

progressively weaker into the noon hour with a technical bounce at 2.06 and a quick rally following Russia/Ukraine headlines.  10yr down 7bps presently at 1.974 and 3.0 UMBS up anywhere between an eighth and three quarters of a point depending on liquidity.

03:33 PM

Gains accelerated with 10yr now close to week's lowest levels (down 11.6 bps at 1.927).  MBS are up more than half a point.  No new motivations, just ongoing geopolitical momentum.