Nearly ¾ of States in Stable Range According to Freddie Housing Indicator

The nation's housing market continues to improve and the spring home buying season appears to be off to a strong start according to a Freddie Mac report released on Wednesday.  The company's Multi-Indicator Market Index or MiMi now stands at 83.8, indicating a housing market that is on the outer range of its historic benchmark level of housing improvement.

The MiMi improved 1.0 percent from February to March, had a three-month gain of 1.56 percent, and was up 7.23 percent year-over-year.  In addition to the national increases six more metro areas and the State of Kentucky have moved within their benchmark ranges.

MiMi monitors and measures the stability of the nation's housing market, as well as the housing markets of all 50 states, the District of Columbia, and the top 100 metro markets. The index is based on proprietary Freddie Mac data and current local market data to measure where single-family housing markets are relative to their own long-term stable ranges.  Among the considerations are information from home purchase applications including payment-to-income ratios which indicate changes in home purchasing power, mortgage payment performance and local employment.  These indicators are combined to create a composite MiMi value for each market.

Freddie Mac uses this data to show, at a glance, where each market stands relative to its own stable range of housing activity. MiMi also indicates how each market is trending, whether it is moving closer to, or further away from, its stable range. A market can fall outside its stable range by being too weak to generate enough demand for a well-balanced housing market or by overheating to an unsustainable level of activity. Since its all-time low in October 2010, the national MiMi has rebounded 41 percent, but remains significantly off from its high of 121.7. 

Thirty-six of the 50 states plus the District of Columbia have MiMi values within range of their benchmark averages, with the District of Columbia (102), Hawaii (96.7), Colorado (95.9), Montana (95.6) and Utah (95.6) ranking in the top five. Sixty-five of the 100 metro areas have MiMi values within range; Salt Lake City, Honolulu, Los Angeles, Nashville, and Austin, top the list.

In March, 41 of the 50 states and 84 of the top 100 metros were showing an improving three-month trend. The same time last year, 45 of the 50 states, and 96 of the top 100 metro areas were showing an improving three-month trend.

Freddie Mac Deputy Chief Economist Len Kiefer said of the index, "The U.S. housing market is poised to have its best year in a decade and the spring home buying season is off to a strong start. Pent up demand for homes and near record-low mortgage rates are bolstering housing markets across the country. The National MiMi currently stands at 83.8, the highest since September of 2008. Home purchase applications are up nearly 14 percent from one year ago, mortgage delinquencies continue to trend down, and robust employment growth are all positive signs. The National MiMi payment-to-income indicator is also up 4 percent from the same time last year. The impact of rising house prices coupled with tight supplies of for-sale homes in many markets has the potential to make it difficult for the typical family to buy a home despite these low mortgage rates.

"Similar to last month, we still see pockets of weakness in the Midwest and South, though they are improving, while the Northeast, and especially the West are generally doing better. It's also worth noting that North Dakota dropped out of the top 5 ranked states in MiMi for the first time since the index was launched in 2014."