MBS Morning: Focus Shifting Back to Econ Data--Especially Friday's NFP

Last week's theme was simple: sell bonds until hearing what Fed Chair Powell had to say in his Jackson Hole speech, then buy bonds when Powell simply reiterated his previous stance.  Some of that buying has carried over into the new week, but the broader sideways trend remains. 

Markets are now free to do what Powell told them to do: focus on the economic data for additional confirmation about "substantial further progress.  As far as the Fed is concerned, it's really only the labor market that needs to improve in order to meet tapering goals.  This is an informative week in that regard, mainly due to Friday's jobs report (aka NFP or "non-farm payrolls).

In terms of measuring progress, bonds have operated reliably in the same range since the last jobs report (see the chart below) with several ceiling bounces at 1.37+ and an entire week of floor bounces at 1.22+.  Conveniently enough, the current week begins with yields right in the middle of those two boundaries.