MBS Morning: Critical Battle For Support As Rates Risk Pivoting Higher

Bonds are either on the doorstep of critical line in the sand, or they soon will be.  These lines are drawn on the technical ceilings at 1.37% and 1.43% in 10yr yields.  With highs of 1.375% already hit this morning, the first battle is well underway.  At this point, Powell's Jackson Hole speech wouldn't need to be too terribly hawkish tomorrow in order to tip over some technical dominoes that lead to the next battle at 1.43%.  If that battle is lost and covid numbers stabilize, we could be witnessing the confirmation of a longer-term uptrend in rates (the one we were worried about seeing upon the completion of the mid-2021 "intermission").

Here are the relevant pivot points in 10yr yields.

Here is the big picture pivot zone.  The lower line is the 1.21-1.24 gap (let's call it 1.24) that formed in February (and filled in mid-July).  The upper line is the 1.43% level as seen in the chart above.  Most everyone and their brothers/sisters in the analytical community sees these 2 levels as the key options following Powell tomorrow.  At this point though, yields are close enough to the upper boundary that it would a tall order to move to 1.22%.

"Good" and "bad" are relative terms here.  As written, they reference bond market performance.  But if we're talking about the underlying conditions responsible for the move (covid and the economy), bad is good and good is bad.