MBS TECHS: Mortgages Holding Up Well Despite Treasury Weakness

Here is a 2 day chart of the Fannie 4.5% coupon.  A pretty stable day and obviously a bit better than yesterday:

Off the lows, but not much momentum to do much else, especially considering treasury yields backing up near 3.0% again on the 10 year.  However, as the chart below shows, MBS yields (in green) have fared very well versus treasury yields (in red), which is the common theme of "tightening during treasury selling" that has been so present these past weeks and months.

(fyi, the Y axis refers to the MBS yield, not the treasury price)

But what's going on longer term?  As has been mentioned, we've been quite range-bound so far this year, disconnected from broader economic events and more subject to flow and trade issues when it comes to determining the relatively flat price movements we've seen.

Here's a day over day chart that shows this recent range.  There is a sincere lack of normal technical analysis clues.  One of the most salient things to note would be the recent development of an uptrend, but combine this with the overhead line at 101-07 and, yep, you guessed it, Triangle Time!  So our best indications of movement from a technical perspective at least, may come when either of these lines are tested and confirmed.  We're close today on the high end, but as the triangle progresses towards its termination, we're also getting close on the low end.