MBS Live Day Ahead: Once Again Trying to Settle Down Ahead of Fed

Ahoy ye salty dogs sailing the high seas of the mortgage world.  Another year has come and gone without any grand preparations for Talk Like a Pirate Day, so these first two sentences will likely be the extent of the allusion, although a phrase or two may slip into today's MBS Huddle video (if you're an MBS Live member and don't know what the Huddle is, avast ye! This be the link ye need.  Make sure that "yes" is selected at the bottom, and you'll be availed of the Huddle this afternoon).

Down to business...

Actually, talking like a pirate could prove to be as interesting as anything the bond market has in store for us today, given that so much of the bigger picture focus remains on tomorrow's FOMC events (announcement, forecasts, press conference).  As I see it, bonds have been in the throes of a pre-Fed correction that brings trading levels back to the Summer's most central pivot point, 2.22%.

Granted, yields broke above 2.22% yesterday, and they're trading over it presently, but let's not split hairs about a few bps in the bigger picture.  It's fair to say we're generally gravitating toward 2.22%.  Moreover, if we're going to be honest with ourselves about the bigger picture, 2.22% is best viewed as a range that stretches all the way up to 2.28%.  Naturally, who wants to think about 2.28% when we were close to breaking into the 1's a week and a half ago?

In any event, the declining volume and absence of actionable economic data make today something to be endured rather than a treasure trove of relevant market motivation.  Yields would have to walk the plank or climb the crow's nest in a major way in order to shiver any of our timbers.