MBS MID-DAY: Bond Recover From Morning Weakness After 10yr Auction

By: Matthew Graham

Bond markets began the domestic session in slightly weaker territory after an overnight session that was almost completely uneventful.  The two key themes today have been the oil trade and the 10yr auction.

Rising oil and stock prices put pressure on bond markets early.  10yr Treasuries and MBS were at their weakest levels of the day at 10:40am, but began to gradually recover after oil reversed sharply.  The reversal was paradoxically brought about by a weak oil inventory report (lower-than-expected inventories).  This made for a quick, sharp move higher in prices.  The spike was promptly seized upon as an opportunity to sell more oil!

The bounce in oil marked the turning point for stocks and bonds.  The recovery was gradual until the 10yr auction.  There we have a combination of the auction results and the prevailing trend resulting in a strong recovery for bonds. 

The auction results showed non-dealers bidding for and winning more of the auction than they're typically awarded.  This can leave dealers a bit hungry for the bonds being auctioned--especially if they were waiting on the auction before continuing to follow the day's prevailing "risk-off" trend (i.e. lower stocks/oil prices and higher bond prices). 


MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
MBS
FNMA 3.0
100-07 : +0-01
FNMA 3.5
103-11 : +0-01
FNMA 4.0
105-30 : +0-01
Treasuries
2 YR
0.9190 : -0.0160
10 YR
2.2040 : -0.0180
30 YR
2.9530 : -0.0050
Pricing as of 12/9/15 1:22PMEST

Morning Reprice Alerts and Updates
A recap of Alerts and Updates provided to MBS Live subscribers.
10:50AM  :  ALERT ISSUED: Another Uptick in Negative Reprice Risk, but Maybe Contained
10:01AM  :  ALERT ISSUED: Negative Reprice Risk Already a Consideration

Live Chat Featured Comments
A recap of featured comments from the Live Discussion on the MBS Live Dashboard.
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS - REUTERS POLL-MEDIAN 90 PCT CHANCE U.S. FEDERAL RESERVE RAISES INTEREST RATES IN DECEMBER (70 PCT IN NOV 10 POLL)"
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS - U.S. OCT WHOLESALE SALES UNCHANGED (CONSENSUS +0.4 PCT) VS SEPT +0.5 PCT (PREV +0.5 PCT)"
Christopher Stevens  :  "MG- I've said it before but it deserves to be repeated...the Market Newsletter feature is great!"