MBS RECAP: Bond Markets Trying Very Hard to Look Like They're Not Trying

By: Matthew Graham

This continues to be one of the most anomalous Thanksgiving weeks in the history of Thanksgiving weeks--at least as far as bond markets are concerned.  As a percentage of the recent average, volumes have been higher than they've been since 2008, when bonds were in the midst of the great collapse in yields at the apex of the financial crisis. 

But for all that volume, there's just not very much actual MOVEMENT in trading levels.  Case in point: 10yr yields ended less than half a bp from yesterday's latest levels and MBS were only 1/32nd away from yesterday's close across the board.

Today's major attempt at movement came in the form of the Turkey/Russia news.  When headlines hit overnight that Turkey shot down a Russian warplane, stocks and bond yields sank and volume spiked.  But even here, the actual movement wasn't that big compared to the volume.  10yr yields made it down to 2.206 which was promptly seized by sellers re-establishing short positions they'd just covered in the past week.  There were no further improvements to be had for bonds, but neither was there any downside.  The rest of the day proved to be an uneventful, consolidative grind, right back toward the central point of gravity (currently 2.25-ish in terms of 10yr yields).


MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
MBS
FNMA 3.0
100-07 : +0-01
FNMA 3.5
103-12 : +0-01
FNMA 4.0
105-30 : +0-01
Treasuries
2 YR
0.9300 : +0.0040
10 YR
2.2390 : -0.0040
30 YR
3.0050 : +0.0060
Pricing as of 11/24/15 5:38PMEST

Today's Reprice Alerts and Updates
A recap of Alerts and Updates provided to MBS Live subscribers.
10:11AM  :  Geopolitics Creates Entry Point for Bond Sellers

MBS Live Chat Highlights
A recap of featured comments from the Live Discussion on the MBS Live Dashboard.
Christopher Stevens  :  "MG- this newsletter tool is phenomenal!"
John Tassios  :  "I agree with Sung, I've been using the newsletter for the past few weeks and have gotten very good feedback from my realtor partners. also, along what MG is saying, sometimes i grab some daily headline that are tagged and send out extra newsletters throughout the week. Well done MG & Co. !!"
Sung Kim  :  "if no one has seen marketnewsletters.com you might be missing out on one of the most important tools in your professional career, in my opinion"
Tom Schwab  :  "I have gotten 3 PIW's in the last three weeks, totally weird but I am grateful."
Victor Burek  :  "i just got one recently, first one in several months"
Ted Rood  :  "it's my second locally since July."
Ted Rood  :  "Just got an appraisal waiver on a sfr purchase in St Louis City. I expected an excessive value warning!"