MBS MID-DAY: Nothing Really Matters Despite Small-Scale Drama

By: Matthew Graham

The only significant development for markets today in terms of news or economic data was the overnight news that Turkey shot down a Russian fighter jet.  If that sounds a bit far removed from the world of MBS and mortgage rates, it is.  That's why the move was modest.  It's also now been fully erased.

In the bigger picture, bond markets simply continue to consolidate.  This has been going on for most of November and today brought 10yr yields all the way back below the levels seen BEFORE NFP.  It just so happened that those pre-NFP levels coincided with a few technical targets, including the popular 21-day exponential moving average that serves as the foundation for the middle Bollinger Band.

Bottom line, left to their own devices, yields would continue to consolidate in an ever-narrower range heading into the holiday, but the Turkey/Russia news made for an unexpected move down to levels that enticed some sellers to jump back in the market, thus pushing yields back up toward their preferred technical zone within a bp of 2.25, higher or lower.

For what it's worth, some lenders who priced early enough in the morning are getting close to considering negative reprices because of the gap in prices between then and now.  Fannie 3.5 are only down 1 tick on the day, but are down 3.5 ticks from morning rate sheet print times.


MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
MBS
FNMA 3.0
100-06 : -0-01
FNMA 3.5
103-11 : -0-01
FNMA 4.0
105-29 : -0-01
Treasuries
2 YR
0.9380 : +0.0120
10 YR
2.2460 : +0.0030
30 YR
3.0130 : +0.0140
Pricing as of 11/24/15 1:42PMEST

Morning Reprice Alerts and Updates
A recap of Alerts and Updates provided to MBS Live subscribers.
10:11AM  :  Geopolitics Creates Entry Point for Bond Sellers

Live Chat Featured Comments
A recap of featured comments from the Live Discussion on the MBS Live Dashboard.
Guy McAtee  :  "Slick share option. Great job MG! Getting way more value than my cost of subscription!"
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS - CONFERENCE BOARD CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX AT LOWEST SINCE SEPT 2014"
Jeff Anderson  :  "Interesting considering the chart in the Day Ahead."
Jude Bridwell  :  "Consumer confidence just a tad off"
Dan Clifton  :  "Jude, I know, it is like coming down for Christmas and seeing a huge wrapped present and opening it with great anticipation only to find out that it is a giant box of sweaters knitted by grandma"
Jude Bridwell  :  "nothing worse than early morning gain teaser only to be back at unchanged or worse at open"
John Sheadel  :  "Is that Thanksgiving or the next FOMC meeting you're referring to?"
Oliver Orlicki  :  "sub 2.20 by turkey day"
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS - US Q3 BUSINESS INVESTMENT +2.4 PCT (PREV +2.1 PCT), EQUIPMENT +9.5 PCT (PREV +5.3 PCT), INTELLECTUAL PROPERTY/SOFTWARE -0.8 PCT (PREV +1.8 PCT)"
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS - US Q3 CONSUMER SPENDING +3.0 PCT (PREV +3.2 PCT); DURABLES +6.5 PCT (PREV +6.7 PCT)"
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS - US PRELIM Q3 GDP +2.1 PCT (CONSENSUS +2.1 PCT), PREV +1.5 PCT; FINAL SALES +2.7 PCT (CONS +3.0 PCT), PREV +3.0 PCT"