MBS MID-DAY: Focused on Consolidation Ahead of Fed; Some Help From Oil Prices

With the 2pm release of the Minutes from the most recent Fed meeting less than an hour away, bond markets are clearly in consolidation mode.  Both Treasuries and MBS are holding well within yesterday's trading range, forming those characteristic 'triangles' in the bigger picture.  MBS have outperformed relative to the consolidation seen in Treasuries, largely because the latter suffer more from the ill effects of corporate bond issuance.

With those bigger picture movements in mind, today's details are relatively less important.  Not only that, but traders haven't seemed too concerned with data.  Housing Starts were in at 1.06 million vs 1.16 million forecast--a decline of 11 percent--but bond markets continued with the morning's selling trend without blinking.  Fed speakers and oil prices likely had a bit more impact--especially with oil trading briefly below $40/barrel.  But again, in the bigger picture context, it's clear that bonds just want to consolidate ahead of the Fed.