MBS MID-DAY: Focused on Consolidation Ahead of Fed; Some Help From Oil Prices

By: Matthew Graham

With the 2pm release of the Minutes from the most recent Fed meeting less than an hour away, bond markets are clearly in consolidation mode.  Both Treasuries and MBS are holding well within yesterday's trading range, forming those characteristic 'triangles' in the bigger picture.  MBS have outperformed relative to the consolidation seen in Treasuries, largely because the latter suffer more from the ill effects of corporate bond issuance.

With those bigger picture movements in mind, today's details are relatively less important.  Not only that, but traders haven't seemed too concerned with data.  Housing Starts were in at 1.06 million vs 1.16 million forecast--a decline of 11 percent--but bond markets continued with the morning's selling trend without blinking.  Fed speakers and oil prices likely had a bit more impact--especially with oil trading briefly below $40/barrel.  But again, in the bigger picture context, it's clear that bonds just want to consolidate ahead of the Fed.


MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
MBS
FNMA 3.0
100-02 : -0-01
FNMA 3.5
103-09 : -0-01
FNMA 4.0
105-29 : -0-01
Treasuries
2 YR
0.8840 : +0.0250
10 YR
2.2800 : +0.0120
30 YR
3.0510 : -0.0030
Pricing as of 11/18/15 1:31PMEST

Morning Reprice Alerts and Updates
A recap of Alerts and Updates provided to MBS Live subscribers.
10:14AM  :  Bonds Trading an "Inside Day" Ahead of Fed

Live Chat Featured Comments
A recap of featured comments from the Live Discussion on the MBS Live Dashboard.
Matt Hodges  :  "last December was the beginning of the Spring season here...very odd, Victor, but i was slammed 11 months ago"
Victor Burek  :  "doesn't purchase activity always tail off this time of year?"
Michael Gillani  :  "It seems that over the past 30-60 days purchase volume has curtailed significantly. I'm hearing the same from agents as well. A lot of applications are refinances deciding to get off the fence and make a move in fear of the Fed and rising rates. If rates rise, I think that will put more pressure on volume and that coupled with the delay's of TRID could make for a bleak winter."
Matthew Graham  :  "I don't think there was much doubt in Sept. Less now though. Fed dropped ball in Sept. Has all but admitted it got spooked by China."
Jeff Anderson  :  "Historically haven't they raised when the % was over 60%? Thought I saw that somewhere."
Oliver Orlicki  :  "I think they still may have some doubt that they may actually lift off in December. Same as sept"
Matthew Graham  :  "I don't see how they could do much more harm unless I'm misreading the extent to which traders have gotten the Fed's message."
Oliver Orlicki  :  "Think todays minutes will do more harm than good"
Oliver Orlicki  :  "tomorrow will be 80%"
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS - U.S. RATES FUTURES IMPLY TRADERS SEE 72 PCT CHANCE OF RATE LIFT-OFF IN DECEMBER VS 64 PCT TUESDAY - CME GROUP'S FEDWATCH"
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS - US OCT HOUSING PERMITS 1.150 MLN UNIT RATE (CONSENSUS 1.150 MLN) VS SEPT 1.105 MLN UNIT RATE"
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS - US OCT HOUSING STARTS 1.060 MLN UNIT RATE (CONSENSUS 1.160 MLN) VS SEPT 1.191 MLN UNIT RATE (PREV 1.206 MLN)"
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS - US OCT HOUSING STARTS -11.0 PCT VS SEPT +6.7 PCT (PREV +6.5 PCT)"