MBS MID-DAY: Bonds Boosted by Corporate Debt Surprise

By: Matthew Graham

Ever heard of Carlyle?  Is that like Cargill?  How about Veritas?  En vino?  No?

Well, 2 of the above are almost exclusively responsible for bond markets' ability to scrape together an unchanged day at the moment.  This all has to do with the corporate bond market.  Long story short, Carlyle is buying out Veritas and they were going to use upwards of $4 billion in corporate debt. 

The broader bond market was well aware of this and trading levels always do their best to adjust to the known quantity of supply.  In other words, traders have a good idea of the debt they might be able to buy.  When it comes to $4 bln in debt, you can be sure that more than a few traders are planning on buying and have had to sell other debt in order to make room for the anticipated purchase.

Normally, the new corporate debt would be issued, traders would bid, and life would go on.  But today's big deal was unexpectedly cancelled.  The reasons aren't important for our purposes, but for the record, Carlyle cites unfavorable market conditions.  What's important is that this immediately upset the balance of supply and demand in bond markets.  Traders suddenly found themselves with $4 bln more in buying demand than supply could accommodate.  Higher demand and lower supply make prices go up and yields go down. 

Indeed this is exactly what happened this afternoon, and there are no other satisfying explanations.  It was just barely enough to get MBS and Treasuries back to unchanged levels, but that was good for positive reprices considering the lower levels that began the day.


MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
MBS
FNMA 3.0
100-02 : +0-02
FNMA 3.5
103-09 : +0-01
FNMA 4.0
105-29 : +0-01
Treasuries
2 YR
0.8550 : +0.0000
10 YR
2.2660 : -0.0051
30 YR
3.0500 : -0.0140
Pricing as of 11/17/15 2:19PMEST

Morning Reprice Alerts and Updates
A recap of Alerts and Updates provided to MBS Live subscribers.
12:41PM  :  What's With The Spike?
10:36AM  :  ALERT ISSUED: Negative Reprice Risk Increasing as MBS Hit Lows
8:44AM  :  Bonds Remain Under Pressure After CPI Hits Forecast

Live Chat Featured Comments
A recap of featured comments from the Live Discussion on the MBS Live Dashboard.
Christopher Stevens  :  "and that is why this site is invaluable!"
Matt Hodges  :  "great information and timely. MG - dude, you are on"
Matthew Graham  :  "
MBS Live Update Issued
What's With The Spike?"
Gilbert Denizard  :  "some of the air is coming out of the balloon? what's causing the sudden 10 yr drop?"
Matt Hodges  :  "looks vague...allows for recertifications under HRAP still, which i thought all were expiring - every approval now DELRAP."
Kevin Danforth  :  "Anyone read the HUD mortgagee letter posted last Friday yet on FHA approved condos? Got an email from the broker manager at my office that was sent out by the NAR that made it seem like a big deal but I am reading the actual letter and it doesn't sound at all like it really will make a difference"
Ted Rood  :  "must be TRID, Chip"
Chip Harris  :  "on credit."
Chip Harris  :  "anyone ever heard of a HELOC lender requiring a $25 fee to update the info to current?"
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS - U.S. RATES FUTURES IMPLY TRADERS SEE 70 PCT CHANCE OF U.S. RATE HIKE IN DECEMBER VS 68 PCT MONDAY - CME GROUP'S FEDWATCH"
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS - U.S. OCT CPI YEAR-OVER-YEAR +0.2 PCT (CONS +0.1 PCT); EXFOOD/ENERGY +1.9 PCT (CONS +1.9 PCT)"
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS - U.S. OCT CPI +0.2 PCT (+0.2004; CONSENSUS +0.2 PCT) VS SEPT -0.2 PCT; EXFOOD/ENERGY +0.2 PCT (+0.2023; CONS +0.2 PCT) VS SEPT +0.2 PCT"