MBS MID-DAY: Oil and Equities Give Bonds a Boost (CHARTS)

By: Matthew Graham

It's still not making a ton of sense to refer to bond markets as moving in the same way that other markets are, but today is as close as we've gotten to such a phenomenon this week.  In other words, bonds are right on the edge of a big enough move that it would look like something other than just another extension of the post-sell-off consolidation that we discussed yesterday.  In fact, if we only look at 5 days, we could say that yields are breaking below their consolidative trend:

But the point is that this might not be as meaningful in the context of other market movements:

This chart brings us to the day's primary motivation.  It could even be the driving force behind bonds' ability to bounce after the NFP sell-off on 11/6.  Either way, we can at least say that this much of a slump in commodities, stocks, and other countries' bond yields creates a current that US bond markets don't much care to swim against, even if they'd prefer to be heading upstream.  That's a backhanded way of saying today is good, but further gains will require further drama elsewhere.


MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
MBS
FNMA 3.0
99-31 : +0-09
FNMA 3.5
103-07 : +0-08
FNMA 4.0
105-28 : +0-07
Treasuries
2 YR
0.8550 : -0.0200
10 YR
2.2730 : -0.0420
30 YR
3.0530 : -0.0400
Pricing as of 11/13/15 1:57PMEST

Morning Reprice Alerts and Updates
A recap of Alerts and Updates provided to MBS Live subscribers.
9:33AM  :  Unacceptably Small Rally After Data is a Big Clue

Live Chat Featured Comments
A recap of featured comments from the Live Discussion on the MBS Live Dashboard.
Matthew Graham  :  "Oil"
Scott Valins  :  "Is this a delayed data-driven move or something else?"
Matthew Graham  :  "The CFPB's previous (now deleted, and redirected to the current page) definition was: "To be preapproved for a mortgage loan means that a lender has evaluated your creditworthiness and has made a commitment to extend you a loan up to a specified amount. The preapproval will say how long it is valid for and may contain some other conditions for you to get the loan. But in general, a preapproval means that the lender is ready to make you a particular mortgage loan based on the information you provided at the time of your preapproval.""
Matthew Graham  :  "and that's where the damage comes in. Every realtor would insist on the full meal deal"
Hugh W. Page  :  "Or you get some smart a$$ who asks for a copy of the AUS."
Matthew Graham  :  "would be pretty easy to say AUS approval or Underwriter TBD approval = preapproval, but that would do more damage to the housing industry than good."
Jason Zimmer  :  "if it goe to UW it is approved, not pre-approved"
Victor Burek  :  "they are wrong Adam... a LO cannot approve a loan"
Adam Dahill  :  "Maybe it's different over in my neck of the woods but every LO I know including retail guys issue pre approvals and they are not going to UW. I'm talking about guys at Citi and wells too"
Hugh W. Page  :  "These two terms are so abused though. Ask 100 LO's and 100 Realtors to define these terms and I bet you get quite a variety of answers."
Victor Burek  :  "exactly...prequalication only means you spoke to a LO, did a app and ran credit...and based on that info, you are qualified...to be preapproved, it must go into underwriting by a underwriter...a LO can never pre approve someone"
Robin Baran  :  "Preapproval means an underwriter has reviewed. An LO can issue a prequal but not a preapproval"
Robin Baran  :  "And if you really want to be TRID compliant, you did a prequal on 10-2 , rather than a preapproval!"
Victor Burek  :  "not for hiking in Dec they dont"
Christopher Stevens  :  "Does the Fed even care what these numbers are right now."
Victor Burek  :  "so inflation keeps going the wrong direction, yet all fed members continue to say they see it hitting their target in the next year or so"
Chris Hooker  :  "We need to raise rates and slow down this crazy growth"
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS - U.S. OCT YEAR-OVER-YEAR PPI FINAL DEMAND -1.6 PCT (CONS. -1.2 PCT), EX FOOD/ENERGY +0.1 PCT (CONS. +0.5 PCT)"
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS - U.S. OCT PPI FOR FINAL DEMAND EXFOOD/ENERGY -0.3 PCT (CONS. +0.1 PCT) VS SEPT -0.3 PCT"
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS - U.S. OCT PPI FOR FINAL DEMAND -0.4 PCT (CONSENSUS +0.2 PCT) VS SEPT -0.5 PCT"
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS - US OCT RETAIL SALES EX-AUTOS +0.2 PCT (CONS +0.4 PCT) VS SEPT -0.4 PCT (PREV -0.3 PCT)"
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS - US OCT RETAIL SALES +0.1 PCT (CONSENSUS +0.3 PCT) VS SEPT UNCHANGED (PREV +0.1 PCT)"