Bonds remain under an amount of pressure that is something less than extreme and something much greater than insignificant. MBS continue to outperform Treasuries. This tends to be the case in general, but is exacerbated during bigger moves and when there's corporate debt issuance about. Fannie 3.0s are down a quarter point on the day and 10yr Notes are down more than 3/8ths of a point (up 4.7bps in yield).
There haven't been any overt sources of inspiration for the negative momentum in bonds. Rather, there's simply been a pervasive bias toward selling, right from the start of the overnight session (which was in Europe today, as Japanese markets were closed).
Stocks were lower. Bonds sold.
Stocks were higher. Bonds sold.
Data was friendly in Europe, leading to German Bunds rallying. Domestic bond markets still sold.
European bond markets turned around and sold. Domestic bonds sold some more.
Bond traders noticed bonds being sold. Bonds sold some more.
You get the idea. We're steadily approaching the 2.28-2.29 technical target most likely to see the first meaningful show of support from opportunistic buyers. If tomorrow morning's data doesn't get us there quickly, this grinding trend will get us there slowly.
MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom.
Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
| MBS | FNMA 3.0 100-26 : -0-08 | FNMA 3.5 103-29 : -0-06 | FNMA 4.0 106-12 : -0-04 |
| Treasuries | 2 YR 0.7740 : +0.0170 | 10 YR 2.2210 : +0.0450 | 30 YR 3.0030 : +0.0570 |
| Pricing as of 11/3/15 1:11PMEST |
Morning Reprice Alerts and Updates
10:24AM : ALERT ISSUED: Early Negative Reprice Considerations
Live Chat Featured Comments
John Tassios : "I agree to with VB and MG - FED will go in Dec so Yellen will get Fischer and rest of the hawks off her back. I think it will be policy mistake and slow down an already sluggish GDP and drive low inflation even lower"
Oliver Orlicki : "This run up is in anticipation of it and it is not going to happen."
Matthew Graham : "really close to happening in Sep. They said as much"
Hugh W. Page : "I agree VB. It's seems much clearer now that's going to happen."
Matthew Graham : "On track for Dec unless derailed by some data surprise"
aaron meyer : "You really think so? I think they feel that they have to do it regardless"
Victor Burek : "fed is hiking in dec"
Jude Bridwell : "I think the jury is still out Hugh."
Hugh W. Page : "Does anyone still feel Fed will delay into 2016 for liftoff?"
John Tassios : "Agreed 100% Hugh on consumers understanding of LE with more details. My argument has been that the pre 2010 GFE was more detailed too and had all of the info as current LE, except for APR info. The regulators did not do thorough research and rushed to change RESPA GFE in 2010 that made it worse for consumers to understand. The LE is admission by regulators ,in my opinion, the 2010 RESPA changes were not good for consumers."
Sung Kim : "and think about it, now your closers, title companies, and underwriters are being held accoutnable"
Hugh W. Page : "It's not like we didn't have some time to ramp up for this......."
Sung Kim : "the only problems being reported are coming from the industry not being prepared, not the consumer"
Hugh W. Page : "I'm going to take the other side on the LE argument. Yes, various parties are having issues with it but 1) It's early. People will figure out how to do this better as time goes on. 2) The disclosure itself is way more consumer friendly in terms of understanding. Does it have some problems, yes of course, but it's light years better than the previous GFE (for consumers)."
Andrew Benson : "yes, I got notification yesterday"
John Tassios : "is SP7 out yet? We have not gotten notice from Calyx on update."
Sung Kim : "Nothing wrong with KBYO other than user error"
John Tassios : "LE is regulators admission that 2010 RESPA GFE changes were not good for consumers to understand their fees. The LE went back to pre 2010 more detailed version of GFE."
Oliver Orlicki : "I thought the 2010 GFE was bad, this blows that away. Lenders, LOS, title, and everyone else is still having issues."
John Tassios : "Jumping in on last nights comments on TRID. Adverse benefit to consumer from my point of view. Most of the atty's / title Co's have raised their fees due to TRID, most wholesale lenders have a bit worse margins built in to rates due to TRID, longer lock periods reducing lender credits, ie, 45 day lock not as good pricing as 30 day lock due to TRID. Plus all of the delays in closings that will cost time and money due to TRID. I'm not sold yet either."
Matthew Graham : "repricing of Fedspectations after last week's announcement. Pretty cut and dry, I'd say. The good news is that this could also be viewed as clearing the runway for a bigger rally when the organic economic weakness shows up in full force."