MBS RECAP: Bond Markets Still Coming to Terms With Week's Losses

By: Matthew Graham

Bond markets continued to trade resiliently through the close today with the help of month-end buying demand.  A small-scale battle played out earlier this morning between those month-end buyers and the more tactical sellers looking to push yields higher to set up better entry points (i.e. push prices down in order to buy bonds later). 

These two classes of investors are often referred to as "real money" (pension funds, money managers, insurance funds, etc) and "fast money" (leveraged accounts, prop desks, hedge funds).  Real money is where month-end buying demand comes from and that buying clearly began after the 8:20am CME open when yields had been pushed up over 2.17.   It put a stop to the fast money selling that began roughly an hour earlier when yields were down at 2.146.  The two sides continued the battle in between those levels for the rest of the morning.  Month-end buyers were left in control in the afternoon as fast money left their algorithms to step in and sell any dip to 2.14. 

All things considered, it was a fairly uneventful day in light of yesterday's move.  We won't really know how much negative momentum still exists until next week with month-end out of the way.  Also, although bonds gained ground today, it was just a consolidation of the week's losses in the bigger picture.  The way traders react to next week's economic data will tell us a lot about the approach to December's Fed Announcement.  Specifically, WILL traders react very much, or is the key consideration simply that the Fed seems to be 'over' the global economic risks that stayed its hand in September (and merely giving us a courtesy warning as opposed to simply going ahead and hiking this week)?


MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
MBS
FNMA 3.0
101-04 : +0-08
FNMA 3.5
104-04 : +0-06
FNMA 4.0
106-15 : +0-05
Treasuries
2 YR
0.7280 : +0.0000
10 YR
2.1440 : -0.0280
30 YR
2.9220 : -0.0410
Pricing as of 10/30/15 5:03PMEST

Today's Reprice Alerts and Updates
A recap of Alerts and Updates provided to MBS Live subscribers.
9:42AM  :  Bond Markets Find Footing, But Chicago PMI might Change That

MBS Live Chat Highlights
A recap of featured comments from the Live Discussion on the MBS Live Dashboard.
Jason Anker  :  "I'd worry about what month end buying could be doing today and ignore technicals till monday"
John Sheadel  :  "... yaaaaaaawwwwwnnn... what an uneventful Friday."
Dustin McAlister  :  "not based on county, you have to put it in the itemization under aggregate adjustment"
Jason Anker  :  "not auto here"
Michael Steren  :  "Encompass Users - does the system automatically pull or populate property tax due dates for the prepaids/escrow reserves? Or is that a manual entry?"
Matthew Graham  :  "anyway, I wouldn't overcomplicate it. Fed members have always given speeches and markets have always been interested in what they have to say. The issue right now is that they're more confused than normal, and pretty anxious about making the wrong move, apparently"
Matthew Graham  :  ""Federal Reserve staff play a significant role in enhancing public understanding of the Committee’s actions, thereby promoting the effectiveness of monetary policy. In all communications with the public regarding monetary policy issues, members of the staff should refrain from publicly expressing their own personal opinions or predictions regarding prospective monetary policy decisions. In explaining the rationale for announced Committee decisions, staff should draw on Committee communications, the Chairman’s press conference remarks, and other published materials as appropriate. Whenever staff make public comments on monetary policy, they should clearly indicate that those comments are solely their own responsibility and should not be interpreted as necessarily representing the views of the Committee, its principals, or any other person associated with the Federal Reserve System.""
Hugh W. Page  :  "CR it's one way in which the Fed can say they are being "transparent". Unfortunately, their attempt at transparency can sometimes leave us all confused."
Caroline Roy  :  "What is the strategy behind all the Fed Gov's making intermittent opinions? Are they all just vying for their time in the spotlight? Just creates more of a yoyo affect in between FOMC meetings."
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS - WILLIAMS SAYS POTENTIAL OF LOW NEUTRAL INTEREST RATE HAS SIGNIFICANT IMPLICATIONS FOR MONETARY POLICY, PUTS MORE FOCUS ON POSSIBLE FISCAL RESPONSE"
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS - SF FED'S WILLIAMS SAYS HEADWINDS HOLDING BACK GROWTH REMAIN SIGNIFICANT, HOLDING BACK SHORT TERM INTEREST RATES"